Sex, Money and the Breeders' Cup

The Breeders' Cup kicks off Oct. 26-27, and horse racing columnist Dave Tuley has some inside info to get you ready for race day

Oct. 23, 2007

By Dave Tuley
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

The Breeders' Cup is all about money and sex.

Don't believe me? Well, the 11 Breeders' Cup races this Friday and Saturday total $23 million in purse money, and millions (if not billions when offshore books are factored in) will be wagered worldwide on the races that are being held this year at Monmouth Park in New Jersey.

As for the sex part, the winners of these races will be very popular in the breeding sheds after their racing careers are over. If that isn't incentive enough for them to run well, I don't know what is.

However, unless you think you're going to get lucky at home after getting lucky at the races, or you own one of the horses and have a chance to cash a check from Breeders' Cup Limited, you’ll have to be content with going after the money in the betting pools.

The beauty of the Breeders' Cup is that unlike the Kentucky Derby, which is the most important and most watched single race in the United States each year, the BC is like 11 mini-Derbys over a two day span (up from eight BC races held on a single day the past nine years). There are a lot of racing weekends in this country when there are multiple stakes races run, but the Breeders' Cup is the end of the year goal for all these owners and trainers. You don't have to worry about the horses being prepped for a bigger race down the road, because the only races bigger down the road aren't until next October's BC.

Street Sense is a 7/2 favorite to win the Breeders' Cup Classic. (AI Wire photo)

A lot of the betting public will be focusing on the favorites to cash tickets, but long-shot bettors have prospered in the Breeders' Cup over the years because there are so many quality horses that go off at high odds. Last year, favorites won two of the eight BC races, but those who came up with Street Sense (who most of you know went on to win this year's Derby and is among the favorites in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Classic) could have had him at 15-1 in the Juvenile. He was joined in the long-shot club by Thor's Echo at 15-1 in the Sprint, Miesque's Approval at 24-1 in the Mile, Round Pond at 13-1 in the Distaff and Red Rocks at 10-1 in the Turf.

Two years ago, favorites again won only two races while Intercontinental was 15-1 in the Filly & Mare Turf, Silver Train was 11-1 in the Sprint and Pleasant Home was 30-1 in the Distaff. Even in 2004, when favorites actually won four of the eight races and a second choice won another, there were three bombs with Singletary at 16-1 in the Mile, Wilko at 28-1 in the Juvenile and Better Talk Now at 27-1 in the Turf.

Miesque's Approval is one of many longshots that paid off for bettors this year. (AP Images)

Now, some people pick horses by their name, especially if it's their mom's or a spouse's or a child's, or by a favorite number. I won't make the mistake again of trying to talk anyone out of that. Back in the day, I took a girlfriend to the track and tried to teach her how to handicap. Inevitably, her favorite numbers and horses with family members' names won all day long and we lost every bet (believe me, that day didn't end up being about money or sex, but the lack of both).

Since then, my mantra is that any system of picking horses can succeed in the short term, but it takes solid handicapping to make money in the long run.

The key on Breeders' Cup day is to find the quality horses that are just under the public's radar and might be peaking at the right time, meaning that their true chances of winning are far better than the odds you're being offered.

Volponi flew under the radar in the 2002 Classic, and those who bet on him got 43/1 odds. (AP Images)

That's how I came up with Volponi in the 2002 Classic, when he went off at 43-1. He had lost his four races previous to the Breeders' Cup that year but had finished third in one race and second in the other three, including the two previous races in which he was the betting favorite. So, he was very close in all those races, but since he wasn't quite getting to the wire first, people didn't think he could against the best horses in the world, and his odds continued to drift higher on race day.

Last year, it was much easier for me to make a case in the Mile for Miesque's Approval, who had won four graded stakes at four different tracks during the course of the year, including three in a row. He finished fourth in his last prep race before the Breeders' Cup (what did I say earlier about horses that might not always be asked to give their effort in races when they have a bigger goal down the line?) and was installed at 10-1 on the morning line for the BC Mile, yet the public ignored him for the most part and he won at 23-1. He was such a legitimate winner that he ended up winning the Eclipse Award for Best Turf Male.

TOP PHOTO: High profile thoroughbreds like Street Sense and Curlin are competing in the 2007 Breeders' Cup Classic.