Breeders' Cup Betting: Know the People Behind the Ponies

The Breeders' Cup kicks off Oct. 26-27, and horse racing columnist Dave Tuley has some inside info to get you ready for race day

Oct. 24, 2007

By Dave Tuley
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

The Breeders’ Cup, to be held this Friday and Saturday at Monmouth Park, is a showcase for horses as many of the divisional championships for the year will be determined.

But it’s also a big day for their human counterparts. For all but the most hard-core racing fans, all horses look the same (a horse is a horse, of course, of course), and while horses come and go and have relatively short careers, we tend to get to know the jockeys and trainers a lot better, especially for those casual fans who just follow horse racing during the Triple Crown and at Breeders’ Cup time.

Laffit Pincay. (AP Images)

Over the years, fan favorites in the jockey colony have included the likes of Bill Shoemaker, Steve Cauthen, Pat Day, Laffit Pincay Jr. and Jerry Bailey to name a few. When people saw those names next to a horse, you can bet (and many people did) that the public would line up at the windows to support their favorites. Among the trainers, D. Wayne Lukas, Bob Baffert and Nick Zito have become some of the most recognizable faces in horse racing and Robert Frankel and Todd Pletcher would also have to be added to that list.

So, as a lot of people scan the entries for this weekend’s races, they’re going to be drawn to names with which they’re familiar. Overall, that’s a losing proposition. For one thing, if enough people are doing the same thing, we’re going to see those entrants having much lower odds than they should be. Also, these are among the best in the world at their craft, so just to think that a great jockey is going win because he’s great is not giving the others enough credit.

Still, here’s some tips if you’re not looking to not seriously handicap the horses and are hoping to find live horses mainly by looking at their human connections.

Jockeys

Among the most popular jocks today are Garrett Gomez and John Velazquez, with some attention also given to jockeys who have won big races, especially the Kentucky Derby and other Triple Crown races, and have become more well-known in the mainstream: Jeremy Rose (Afleet Alex, nearly going to his knees in the 2005 Preakness), Edgar Prado (Barbaro, 2006 Derby), Calvin Borel (Street Sense, 2007 Derby).

Personally, Gomez is my favorite as he wins with the favorites he’s supposed to win on, but also gets the most out of lesser mounts, so I’d upgrade the chances of Oprah Winney (6-1) in the Filly & Mare Sprint, Texas Fever (30-1) in the Juvenile Turf, Discreet Cat (2-1) in the Dirt Mile, Indian Blessing (3-1) in the Juvenile Fillies, Wait a While (4-1) in the Filly & Mare Turf, Midnight Lute (2-1) in the Sprint, Host (30-1) in the Mile, Octave (10-1) in the Distaff, and Any Given Saturday (4-1) in the Classic.

Jockey Joe Bravo. (AP Images)

As you can see, most of his horses are among the favorites. But another jockey to keep an eye on is Joe Bravo, who is riding Park Avenue Ball (15-1) in the Dirt Mile, Commentator (12-1) in the Sprint, and Prop Me Up (50-1) in the Distaff.

You might not have heard of Bravo, but he has won a record 13 riding titles at Monmouth, so an argument can be made that he knows every speck of dirt and blade of grass better than the groundskeepers. If he wins with any of those long shots, it would be a major upset, but if you believe in home-turf advantage, he’s your man.

Frank Dettori has won six Breeders’ Cup races, more than any other foreign-based jockey. He usually comes across the pond for the big races, especially on the turf which is the surface all European races are run on.

His mounts this year are Strike the Deal (9-2) in the Juvenile Turf, Grace Anatomy (30-1) in the Juvenile Fillies, Overextended (30-1) in the Juvenile, Kelly’s Landing (20-1) in the Sprint, Jeremy (5-1) in the Mile, and Red Rocks (7-2) in the Turf.

Trainers

If you’re trying to do a lot of reading on the horses running this weekend, the first thing to remember is not to put a whole lot of stock in what trainers tell the press. They make former football coach Lou Holtz sound like a trash-talker. But while Holtz was always known for over-complimenting his opponents and downplaying his own team’s chances, trainers are notoriously confident without putting down their foes.

Noted trainer Todd Pletcher. (AP Images)

They’ll say, “We got exactly what we wanted out of that work” no matter how slow or fast a horse worked, and everyone is thrilled with their post-position draw, even if they’re starting from the grandstand. And they’ll go on and on about how great the favorite is that you wonder why they even entered their own horse.

Another thing to be wary of with trainers is that some of the best trainers have compiled the worst records in Breeders’ Cup history. Pletcher has won just 2 BC races from 41 starters, Frankel is 4-for-68, and Baffert is 3-of-44. I want to say not to blindly play any trainer, but if you do, definitely demand a price. It wasn’t in a Breeders’ Cup, but back in the 2002 Kentucky Derby, I didn’t think too highly of War Emblem trained by Baffert or Proud Citizen trained by Lukas.

When I checked the exacta payoffs, they were paying more than a grand, so I did a $2 exacta box just as a saver in case the two most prolific trainers of 3-year-olds ran 1-2. Sure enough, War Emblem won and Proud Citizen finished second and the exacta returned $1,300 for a $4 total investment.

A lot of foreign trainers aren’t coming to the States because the tight turns at Monmouth aren’t conducive to the Euros' more laid-back running style which is better suited to wide, sweeping turns. So, any trainer who does come from across the pond has to be upgraded. Those include Aidan O’Brien running Achill Island (7-2) in the Juvenile Turf, All My Loving (15-1) in the Filly & Mare Turf, Excellent Art (3-1) in the Mile, Dylan Thomas (7-5) in the Turf and George Washington (20-1) in the Classic; and Jeremy Noseda bringing Strike the Deal (9-2) to run in the Juvenile Turf and Simply Perfect (15-1) in the Filly & Mare Turf.

Several others just have one entry. As was the case when trainer Andre Fabre brought Arcangues over to win the 1993 Classic at 133-1, they’re not just coming over here for the free seats.

TOP PHOTO: Jockey Frank Dettori is one to watch this weekend at the Breeders' Cup. (AP Images)

Dave Tuley was the Daily Racing Form's full-time Las Vegas correspondent from 2000 through May 2007 and now writes a weekly column for DRF. He also owns a new website called ViewFromVegas.com.