The Real Race Begins

It’s Barack Obama for the Democrats and John McCain for the Republicans. Who’s expected to win?

June 9, 2008

By Jason Brough
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

If the gloves were already off, it's time to haul out the brass knuckles and batons because the real political brawling has only just begun. After defeating all contenders and even more pretenders within their own parties, Barack Obama and John McCain are going head-to-head until Nov. 4. The prize is the presidency of the United States of America, the most powerful position in the world, so, yeah – it's a pretty big deal.

At best, Hillary Clinton can hope for a spot next to Obama. (AP Images)

At the moment, Obama is the oddsmakers' -200 favorite to win. Of course, you can't count out McCain at +150. We all know how quickly a race's momentum can change. Just ask Hillary Clinton, who was all but assured the Democratic nomination as little as a year ago. Today, the best she can hope for is a spot as Obama's running mate, a sad consolation prize given her once high hopes. Clinton is at 3/2 to become her vanquisher's right hand, followed by Virginia Senator Jim Webb at 3/1.

One has to think that the economic woes of the country will be the lead issue in the respective campaigns. The Iraq war won't be forgotten, especially by military families, but people are more likely to worry about themselves when their wallets get thin.

Unlike McCain, Obama is promising more than just lower taxes. (AP Images)

Obama has a nice advantage as far as the economy is concerned in that he can play the change card. The Republicans were in the office for the housing boom and subsequent bust, and many blame a lack of regulation for the subprime mortgage crisis. George W. Bush also sat in the White House and did relatively little while American jobs were shipped overseas or south of the border to Mexico, not because he liked people losing their jobs (we hope), but rather because his party tends to preach the free market over government intervention. 

Meanwhile, Obama is promising all sorts of goodies for the middle class, including tax relief, a commitment to trade agreements that create and keep more jobs in America and help for homeowners facing foreclosures. Meanwhile, McCain is pledging the same old: lower taxes. And that might be a tough sell considering many citizens want the government to play a bigger role in the economy, not a lesser one.

Mitt Romney is the favorite to become the Republican vice presidential candidate. (AP Images)

There's a reason Mitt Romney is the 2/1 favorite to be named the Republican vice presidential candidate. Romney is a business superstar. From 1990-98, he was CEO of Bain & Company, a well-respected management consulting firm that he was credited with turning around. Estimates put his net worth as high as $500 million. In other words, a man like Romney must have a few good ideas to help the economy.

Granted, McCain will also feel the sting of membership in the party that sold (or attempted to sell) the American people on the Iraq war, which nobody can deny has been a disaster. McCain says the troops can leave when the Iraqi people can look after themselves. Obama says he’ll have all the combat brigades out in less than two years. Not to mention, he gets to say, "I told you so" about the whole mess.

"I spoke out against what I called 'a rash war' in Iraq," Obama said last year. "I worried about 'an occupation of undetermined length, with undetermined costs, and undetermined consequences.' The full accounting of those costs and consequences will only be known to history. But the picture is beginning to come into focus."

McCain's age might be a deciding factor for voters, (AP Images)

If McCain has any chance of convincing the American people that his plan is the right one, he'll likely be forced to ramp up the scare tactics. "Iraq must not become a failed state, a haven for terrorists, or a pawn of Iran," says his campaign site. "These likely consequences of America's failure in Iraq almost certainly would either require us to return or draw us into a wider and far costlier war."

Whether his assumption that Iraq cannot be left to its own devices is correct might be irrelevant as far as the presidential race is concerned. Many voters are tired of being spooked into supporting the war on terrorism and, whether it destabilizes the Middle East or not, they want the American casualties to stop. 

Issues aside – which, let's face it, happens more than it probably should in politics – there's no question that Obama, 46, has the advantage of youth. His speeches come across as hopeful, not angry or manipulative, and they're drawing many comparisons to those of John F. Kennedy. McCain, on the other hand, is 71 years old and probably won’t look any younger by the end of a stressful and physically demanding race.

"[McCain's] age will be a big factor this fall, implicitly or explicitly, as voters make their final judgments about the candidates," wrote Andres Martinez in the Washington Post, adding that voters "can expect any mental slip-ups on the campaign trail to receive extra scrutiny."

TOP PHOTO: Presidential hopefuls Barack Obama and John McCain have started the official race to the White House. (AP Images)