East Sweet 16 Preview: According to Plan

Contrasting styles of play are front and center as the four top seeds advance in the East region

March 24, 2008

By Mike Halford
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

Three teams made the Sweet 16 by blowing out the competition.

One made it by the skin of its teeth.

But at the end of the day, it all went according to plan.

The only region to advance its top four seeds - No. 1 UNC, No. 2 Tennessee, No. 3 Louisville and No. 4 Washington State - the East displayed the least amount of drama in whittling itself down, but arguably the three most dominant performances. Consider these numbers:

• UNC outscored opponents 221-151
• WSU outscored opponents 132-91
• Louisville outscored opponents 157-109

Only Tennessee - by way of its narrow win over No. 15 American and an overtime victory over No. 7 Butler - faced the slightest bit of adversity through the opening two rounds of March Madness.

So, what to expect from here on in?

Offense Meets Defense

North Carolina is the highest-scoring team in the tournament, averaging 110.5 points per game.

Weaver will be a key cog to the relentless Wazzu D. (AP Images)

Washington State is the stingiest defensive team in the tournament, allowing 40.5 points per game.

So yeah, something's gotta give.

There's no denying that Wazzu has an extremely tall task at hand. Literally. Stopping 6-foot-10-inch Tyler Hansbrough will be goal No. 1 and 1a if the Cougars want to make the first Elite Eight in program history.

However, recent Wazzu history shows that shutting down bigs is not an impossible feat. Having slugged through a Pac-10 regular season against formidable big men like UCLA's Kevin Love, Stanford's Brook and Robin Lopez and Washington's Jon Brockman, the Cougs have learned a thing or two about dealing with big post presences.

Evidence? Wazzu harassed Big East POY Luke Harangody - the 6-foot-9-inch bruiser who averaged 20.4 points and 10.6 rebounds - to a woeful 3-of-17 shooting performance on Saturday. Harangody finished with 10 points and a newfound respect for the Cougar defense, especially the work of underrated big men Aron Baynes and Caleb Forrest. They'll be primarily in charge of handling "Psycho T".

Hansbrough aside, the Heels also present the Cougs a difficult matchup tempo-wise. Carolina amassed a double-digit lead just five minutes into its game against Arkansas, running the floor like a pack of gazelles. It was only the third time in 25 years that the Heels won both of their first two tourney games by 20 or more points. The only other teams to do it, the 1993 and 2005 editions, went on to win the national championship.

The most interesting numbers for bettors might be the seven points Wazzu is laying in this contest. In their last 12 games, the Cougars have only lost one (a 65-55 decision to Arizona) by more than seven. In fact, their seven losses this season were by an average of 8.28 points - a strong indicator the Cougs know how to keep games close.

Size Matters

Louisville must now be considered one of the sleeper picks to win the tournament. They've got a national title-winning coach, depth, size (four players over 6 feet 9 inches averaging at least 18 minutes a game) and now, momentum.

The Vols will have their hands full with Padgett. (AP Images)

While the opposition hasn't been great - Boise State didn't have the talent, Oklahoma didn't have the backcourt - Louisville's tournament resume thus far has been impressive because of its variety. Balanced scoring is the name of the game; seven players had at least seven points against Oklahoma while six did it against Boise State.

But that's Tennessee's game as well. With Chris Lofton doing his best Houdini act through two games - the senior All-American has just 14 points on 4-of-18 shooting - other Vols have, uh, volunteered their scoring. Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism stepped up with 15 and 16 points each. Role player J.P. Prince had a tremendous all-around game with nine points, seven rebounds and five assists.

Despite the wealth of options both Rick Pitino and Bruce Pearl possess, it's the types of options that'll make the difference. Check out the difference in frontcourt depth between Louisville and Tennessee:

In its losses this season, Tennessee has been exposed in the paint (torn apart by Arkansas' Charles Thomas, Kentucky's Patrick Patterson and Texas' Connor Atchley) and will have major issues dealing with the inside game of Louisville.

Best Bet

You can get Louisville right now at 14/1 to win it all in the Bodog Sportsbook. That's a great number for a team who's been as dominant as any through two rounds of play.

Headed to the Final Four

It's a saw-off between UNC and Louisville, and the edge goes to UNC because Ty Lawson is healthy. He's the x-factor for the entire region because his lightning-quick style of play is such a lethal contrast to Hansbrough's bull-in-a-china-shop mentality. Plus, you can never discount the home-court advantage, which will be a major factor as the Heels make a Tobacco Road to the Final Four.

TOP PHOTO: Can Wazzu slow down Psycho T? (AP Images)