Fantasy Football: Offseason Rumblings
Brett Favre, Jason Taylor and Jeremy Shockey have dominated headlines recently - but how will they affect the fantasy football landscape?
July 22, 2008
By Mike Halford
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer
July has never been regarded as a stellar month for NFL fans. While the latter part of July does signify the start of training camp, the month is usually a bore.
Not in 2008, though.
This July will probably be remembered as one of the more active offseason months in football history. Brett Favre's fish-out-of-water flopping in and out of retirement, Jason Taylor dancing his way out of Miami and Jeremy Shockey leaving the Big Apple for the Big Easy have all dominated headlines in a month normally reserved for golf and baseball. It's a football feeding frenzy... in July. I guess those endless NFL Network adverts were right: There is no offseason.
Here, now, are the quick-hit fantasy implications of each situation, plus a few extras.
The Favre Situation
Lost in all the Favre drama is a big fantasy angle: The Packers' starting QB this season (whoever that'll be - we're guessing Aaron Rodgers) gets to run a really gifted offense. Ryan Grant has emerged as a viable top 10 fantasy back for the upcoming season, a strong runner (956 yards, 8 TDs) with a knack for catching the ball out of the backfield (30 snares for 145 yards). A deep, talented receiving pool includes a key veteran (Donald Driver), two blazing youngsters (Greg Jennings and James Jones) and a trusty TE (Donald Lee). The aforementioned receivers hauled in at least 575 yards last season; all told, the Packer offense ranked second in yards per game (370.7) and averaged 27 points per contest.
Will Favre return in yellow and green? (AP Images)If Rodgers does end up as the No. 1 pick, these numbers will obviously dip because, hey, he ain't Favre. But Rodgers is working with skill at the skill positions and - perhaps more importantly - beef at the beefy positions. Green Bay's offensive line was brilliant last year, allowing the league's third-lowest sack total (19).
In his brief playing cameo last season, Rodgers connected on 18-of-26 passes for 201 yards against Dallas. He seemed to know where his big guns were at all times, as Jennings caught five balls for 87 yards and a score while Driver led the team with seven receptions. That's important for a young QB looking to win the trust of the vets.
Bottom line: Rodgers isn't Favre, but who is? He couldn't ask for a better situation to step into, especially with Grant emerging as a top-flight back. Don't panic if you own Packers at the skill positions - they'll produce.
The Taylor Situation
Jason Taylor is an elite player. There's no denying that.
With 117 sacks over 11 NFL seasons, Taylor has established himself as a consistent QB killer. He's recorded double-digit drops in five of the last six seasons (falling just short in 2004 with 9.5 sacks) and seems like he'd be a dominant pass rusher in any circumstance.
Taylor has established himself as a consistent QB killer. (AP Images)That was the setup... now prepare for the fall.
The Redskins suck at getting after the QB. OK, maybe suck is too strong a word, but they certainly aren't very good. Washington recorded 33 sacks last season, tied for 16th best in the league. Decent, sure, but when you consider that two players - Andre Carter (10.5) and Marcus Washington (5) - accounted for nearly half that total, it doesn't say much about the ferocity of the Redskins' pass rush overall. Consider the following, courtesy of Don Banks at CNNSI.com:
"If you want to thrive in the rough and tumble NFC East, you better be able to rush the passer.
Last season, the Giants, Cowboys and Eagles combined for a whopping 136 sacks, an average of slightly more than 45 each. Super Bowl champion New York led the way, of course, with its vaunted pass rush, finishing with 53 sacks. Osi Umenyiora had 13, Justin Tuck contributed 10 and the now-retired Michael Strahan chipped in nine.
Dallas and its aggressive defensive front seven wasn't far behind, with 46 sacks as a team, including 14 for DeMarcus Ware and 12.5 for Greg Ellis. Philadelphia had 37 sacks, led by Trent Cole's breakthrough season of 12.5."
The Redskins' linebackers don't provide much pressure - Washington, London Fletcher and Rocky McIntosh combined for only eight sacks last season - and the front four are mostly left to their own devices. Does the Taylor addition change this, or will he struggle playing in a defense not geared to get after the QB?
Bottom line: Taylor is 33 but coming off an 11-sack campaign. So there is still juice left in the tank. He'll flip over to the left side so Carter can stay at his natural right end position, which will either reinvigorate him (playing a new position) or throw him completely off track. We're guessing he'll have eight to 10 sacks just on his pedigree and talent alone, so draft in IDP leagues accordingly.
The Shockey Situation
The easiest of the bunch, really. Everybody walks away a winner.
Shockey will be a great option for Drew Brees. (AP Images)Shockey goes to an offense that requires less blocking and more route-running. He'll be a great underneath option for Drew Brees and should team up with Marques Colston for one of the best WR-TE combos in the league.
Brees gets a viable short-route option after working with mediocre TEs Eric Johnson, Mark Campbell and Billy Miller over the last two seasons. He and head coach Sean Payton should have a field day utilizing Shockey in a number of packages, especially since Payton was the OC in New York during Shockey's rookie year.
Kevin Boss emerges as an intriguing fantasy TE after coming on strong in the latter parts of last season. Boss had 14 catches for 208 yards and two TDs after Shockey went down with an injury in Week 15.
Bottom line: Even with the health concerns, I'd be tempted to put Shockey in the top five for fantasy TEs, right up there with Antonio Gates, Jason Witten, Kellen Winslow, Tony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark. Brees is now a lock as the fourth best QB behind Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Tony Romo. Boss is a classic boom-or-bust pick, but I'd still put him on par with youngsters like Vernon Davis and Greg Olsen.
TOP PHOTO: The Brett Favre situation is just one of the headlines dominating the NFL offseason. (AP Images)
