Baseball Betting: MLB All-Star Game and Home Run Derby

MLB All-Star Preview: Things to Know

Here's some info on the Home Run Derby and All-Star game before you place your bets

July 10, 2008

By Carlisle Richards
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

A dark day in online betting is coming.

You know, that day in the year after the MLB All-Star Game (on Tuesday, July 15) when there are no pro sports (baseball, basketball, football and hockey) to bet on. There isn't even any tennis, PGA golf or Nascar!

It's amazing that ESPN SportsCenter can fill a half hour on that horrible day.

With pro sports taking a one-day vacation next week, we squeeze out some info on the Home Run Derby and the MLB All-Star Game which you can use in the Bodog Sportsbook and Bodog Live before your betting account takes a break. That is, unless you plan on watching and wagering on darts and snooker.

If you didn't know by now, you shouldn't be betting on baseball. The American League has been giving the National League an ass whooping since the Marlins took home their first World Series (1997). Here are some reasons why:

AL Almost Doubling the NL in Runs
For the last 10 years, the American League has been widely regarded as the better division in baseball and it shows in every All-Star game. The NL has suffered from an 11-game winless streak, averaging only 3.8 runs per game to the AL's 6.2 per.

The NL hasn't been able to hang with AL power hitters like Alex Rodriguez. (AP Images)

The AL is Clutch
Their AL domination culminates from their apparent ability to clutch up when runs are needed: In four of the last six years, the AL has beaten the NL, despite giving up the early lead.

The AL Brings the Long Ball
Another reason seems to be the NL's lack of power compared to the AL bats. In the last 11 years, the AL has homered nine times compared to just three for the NL, and two of those came from current L.A. Dodgers bust Andruw Jones.

Announced American and National League Starters:

Joe Mauer, C, MIN
Kevin Youkilis, 1B, BOS
Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS
Derek Jeter, SS, NYY
Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
Josh Hamilton, OF, TEX
Manny Ramirez, OF, BOS
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA
David Ortiz, DH, BOS
AL Pitchers: Justin Duchscherer (OAK), Roy Halladay (TOR), Scott Kazmir (TB), Cliff Lee (CLE), Joe Nathan (MIN), Jonathan Papelbon (BOS), Mariano Rivera (NYY), Francisco Rodriguez (LAA), Ervin Santana (LAA), Joe Saunders (LAA), George Sherrill (BAL), Joakim Soria (KC)

Geovany Soto, C, CHC
Lance Berkman, 1B, HOU
Chase Utley, 2B, PHI
Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA
Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL
Ryan Braun, OF, MIL
Kosuke Fukudome, OF, CHC
Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHC
NL Pitchers: Aaron Cook (COL), Ryan Dempster (CHC), Dan Haren (ARI), Brad Lidge (PHI), Tim Lincecum (SF), Ben Sheets (MIL), Edinson Volquez (CIN), Billy Wagner (NYM), Brandon Webb (ARI), Brian Wilson (SF), Kerry Wood (CHC), Carlos Zambrano (CHC)

The Home Run Derby is one of the toughest All-Star skill competitions to wager on. Most people have a feeling on which 3-point marksmen or which high-flyer in the NBA has the skills to win. But in baseball, history or a player's home run swing doesn't seem to matter. It's whoever gets hot early in the competition.

Besides Bobby Abreu's crazy first round, the second is when players hit the most in the derby. (AP Images)

When Do the Most HRs Happen in the Derby?
Obviously you can't go by the most HRs overall as four participants are sent packing after the first round. However, if you do a little math, you'll find that in the past five years, the second round has had the most HRs per player (six in the first compared to 7.5 in the second). It's close, but keep in mind that the first-round numbers were bloated by Bobby Abreu's huge 24-HR first round in 2005.

Don't Believe Previous HR Hype
In most sportsbooks, the favorite for the Home Run Derby is usually the reigning champ from the previous season or the HR leader from the first half of that season.

However, the chances of 2007 HR champ Vladimir Guerrero winning back-to-back derby titles is slim to none. Only Ken Griffey Jr. has gone back-to-back since the derby began in 1985. He did it in the 1998 and 1999 seasons.

And in the last five years, the player who led the first half in HRs hasn't won the derby. In fact, none have even made the final. If this year's derby participant Grady Sizemore remains the No. 1 HR hitter in the first half with 22, his chances of winning the event aren't as good as his numbers or the odds may tell you.