MLB Fantasy Baseball: Thief!
The stolen base is back in Major League Baseball, and nobody knows that better than Kansas City Royals speedster Joey Gathright
April 17, 2008
By Mike Halford
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer
Rickey Henderson wouldn't understand what all the fuss is about.
Rickey wouldn't get why fantasy players across the country are jacked about the current crop of basestealers. Rickey doesn't see how anybody cares about Jose Reyes, Joey Gathright, Juan Pierre and Carl Crawford.
And Rickey might be justified if he said so.
Lest we forget that Mr. Henderson – the all-time MLB swipe leader, with 1,406 – posted three seasons with 100+ steals, including a cornea-bulging 130 in 1982. He'd likely scoff at an era where the reigning MLB leader posed a measly 78.
But that's where we're at.
It's not to say, however, that the stolen base is a lost art, or a thing of the past. Chicks don't especially dig the long ball anymore, and the Moneyball routine hasn't extinguished burning basepaths. In fact, teams aren't just attempting to steal more – they're doing it more successfully. Over the last half decade, successful stealing percentages have risen. Last season, the success rate of would-be basestealers went up in the majors for the fifth year in a row, from 68.2 percent in 2002 to 74.4 percent in 2007.
The following four are a major reason why:
Jose Reyes, New York Mets
Reyes is a demon on the basepaths. (AP Images)Reyes is the premier basestealer in baseball today. Since taking on full-time shortstop duties in 2005, he's averaged 63 steals per season and has been a terror at the top of the Mets' lineup.
While he's off to a slow start this year – a hamstring injury has limited him to two swipes in 11 games – there's little doubt he'll be at the top of the NL leader board by the time the season is complete.
Some have said that all the stealing has taken its toll on Reyes. He attempted 99 steals a season ago, and while his 78 successes was the highest total since 1988, many pointed to him as the biggest burnout on a New York team that faltered badly down the stretch.
Joey Gathright, Kansas City Royals
Joey Gathright can jump over cars. Seriously. (AP Images)Gathright burst onto the scene in a major way this season, racking up six steals in his first nine games. The sudden attention paid to the speedster formally known best for jumping over cars might've been too much; since the initial outburst, Gathright hasn't stolen a base in seven games and was thrown out on his lone attempt.
Gathright might be the fastest man in baseball, but it hasn't translated to fantasy glory yet. He's yet to top 230 at-bats in a single season, but has hit the 20-steal plateau three times already. But averaged out, those numbers – played out over a full regular-season campaign – would put him amongst the MLB elite.
Should Gathright get close to a full season (equaling roughly 500 at-bats) as the Royals' starting CF, he should conceivably be a 50-60 steal guy. But that's a big if for a player who's yet to emerge as a starter after six seasons in the majors.
Juan Pierre, Los Angeles Dodgers
Is Juan Pierre slowing down with age? (AP Images)In 2003, Juan Pierre was the darling of the thieving bases sect. Pierre led the National League with 63 steals that season, and his invigorating style of play spurred the Florida Marlins onto a World Series championship.
But that was then. This is now. And Pierre, 30, has started to show signs of slowing down. While he's still a terror on the basepaths – he's stolen at least 55 bases over the last three seasons for the Marlins, Cubs and Dodgers – Pierre may no longer get the playing time to make him a legit fantasy play. He's on pace for 460 at-bats, which would be his lowest total since his rookie season with Colorado in 2000.
He's only appeared in 11 of Los Angeles’ 15 games this season and has just two steals. He's currently owned in just 46 percent of ESPN Fantasy leagues, a fair indicator that some of Pierre's luster has worn off.
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay Rays
Here is the guy whom Gathright is pursuing for the American League swipe crown. Crawford has led the AL in stolen bases four of the past five years, but has proven he's not a one-trick pony. He's a career .295 hitter with some pop (four straight years of 10 or more home runs, good power from the leadoff spot) who's averaged 79 RBIs over the last three seasons. He and Reyes are probably the most complete players mentioned in the basestealing conversation.
Carl Crawford benefits from the aggressive Rays running philosophy. (AP Images)Where Crawford stands to benefit is on the Rays lineup card. The team is loaded with burners: B.J. Upton stole 41 bases a year ago and is on pace for 43 this year; newcomer Nathan Hayes has 20 steals in 50 MLB games; shortstop Jason Bartlett stole 23 with Minnesota last season.
The Rays like to manufacture runs through small-ball, and seemingly all of their quality runners have the green light.
While all four are worth watching for fantasy owners that need speed, Crawford might be the most tantalizing of the bunch. He’s only 26, routinely plays over 150 games a season and has the hitting ability to get on base and wreak havoc once he gets there.
Best of the Rest
Michael Bourn, Houston Astros – Shot out of a cannon to start the year, stealing eight bags in his first 14 games. On pace for 92, but his .236 average might keep him from getting there.
Carlos Gomez, Minnesota Twins – Torii Hunter's replacement in CF has been outstanding on the lines, with an MLB-leading nine steals in just 15 games thus far. He's ridiculously big for a basestealer (6 feet 4 inches, 195 pounds) but is as pure of an athlete as they come.
Chone Figgins, Los Angeles Angels – Since he's been a platoon guy for so long, people forget what a talent Figgins is. He's had over 30 steals for four straight seasons and already has seven in 16 games this year. He's the undisputed starter at third base and is on pace for 71 steals. Too bad the chances of getting him in your league fall somewhere between slim and none.
TOP PHOTO: Jose Reyes, the reigning king of stolen bases. (AP Images)
