NFL Betting: The Favre Effect

Brett Favre in another uniform? It could happen. We take a look at how he could affect regular season totals in the Bodog Sportsbook

July 15, 2008

By Carlisle Richards
Bodog Nation Contributing Writer

He just couldn't let go.

Not three months after leaving the NFL for a John Deere and a six pack, Brett Favre wants to dust off the ol' No. 4 and play catch on Sundays again.

But the Green Bay Packers aren't really waiting for him with open arms.

Sick of the stranglehold his constant flip-flopping has had on the franchise, the Pack have moved on to the Aaron Rodgers era.

Shunned by the organization he bled for, Favre has demanded his release. But at this point, the Pack aren’t budging.

But if they do cave and let the 16-year legend walk, who would be clamoring for his services? And more importantly to bettors, how would that affect wagers, most notably the season's win totals in the Bodog Sportsbook? You could argue that every team could become a contender, but keep in mind that not every team has the talent to make Favre's gun-slinging style effective.

With that in mind, we project how Favre could affect certain teams' regular season totals if he were their QB:

Atlanta Falcons
Total: 4.5
Our O/U Pick: Over

There isn't much talent left on the Falcons after offseason house cleaning, but the addition of Favre should be enough to get over 4.5 wins.

Wide receiver Roddy White would be a great target for Favre. He's coming off a 1,202-yard season. And running back Michael "The Burner" Turner, after years of backing up LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego, has the tires to crack 1,000 yards rushing.

Baltimore Ravens
Total: 6
Our O/U Pick: Over

If Steve McNair can help the Ravens win 13 games in a season, Favre should be able to do the same. (AP Images)

When the Ravens inserted Steve McNair, a quarterback with starter ability in 2006, they put together their best season in franchise history (13-3 overall). The same effect would happen if Favre was a starter for the Ravens. With solid vets at receiver (Derrick Mason at WR, Todd Heap at tight end), and an always ferocious defense led by emotional leader Ray Lewis, Favre would be the missing piece to make a run at the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins
Total: 5.5
Our O/U Pick: Under

Could Favre put the breaks on his cannon for the good of the Dolphins? That's the question that could make or break their season. The Dolphins have an above average backfield with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, but there isn’t much for Favre to work with at wideout. Ted Ginn Jr. was underwhelming in his rookie season and Ernest Wilford and Derek Hagan barely have No. 2 talent. It'll need to be a ball-control offense for the Dolphins to win more than 5.5 games, and even then, the defense doesn't have the talent to keep games from becoming a shootout: The D gave up 27.3 points per game last year.

Detroit Lions
Total: 6.5
Our O/U Pick: Over

Favre would turn Roy Williams into an elite receiver. (AP Images)

Favre has always been able to get the most out of his wideouts. So imagine what he’ll do with two receivers who’ve shown elite ability like Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. With Jon Kitna as the starter, the Lions were able to win seven games while dropping a respectable 21.6 points per game. They should be able to average another field goal and grab at least eight wins with Favre under center.

Carolina Panthers
Total: 7.5
Our O/U Pick: Over

This is a tough one to gauge. As much as the meeting between Favre and Steve Smith should be a match made in heaven, you have to wonder how much the other wideouts and other positions will help. D.J. Hackett, a notorious, injury-riddled underachiever in Seattle and Muhsin Muhammad, who failed to top 600 yards with the Chicago Bears, are battling to be the No. 2 wideout. First-round pick Jonathan Stewart will likely get the bulk of the carries in the backfield, but he's coming off toe surgery and it could hinder him.

That being said, the NFC South is anyone’s division. If the defense improves and Stewart contributes early, eight or more wins is possible.

Buffalo Bills
Total: 7.5
Our O/U Pick: Over

With talented players like Lynch on the Bills, Favre's addition would make them a playoff contender. (AP Images)

The Bills should immediately become a playoff contender under Favre. The defense is better than advertised, RB Marshawn Lynch is coming off a solid rookie season and he's ready to get more involved in the passing game. Then you have Lee Evans: The speedy wideout could crack 1,300 receiving yards with Favre's ability to throw an accurate deep ball. Toss in WR James Hardy as a solid endzone target and the Bills could actually give the Patriots a challenge in the AFC East.

Chicago Bears
Total: 8
Our O/U Pick: Under

It's perplexing to us that the Bodog Sportsbook even considered eight wins a suitable over/under for the Bears without Favre. 5.5 would seem more realistic. The defense is nowhere near as good as their Super Bowl season. Their best wideout is Devin Hester, a great return man but a converted cornerback, and their probable starter at running back is Matt Forte, a player that was selected in the second round of the 2008 draft.

New York Jets
Total: 7.5
Our O/U Pick: Over

At first glance, the Jets don't seem to have the cast to make Favre an effective QB. But wideouts Jerricho Cotchery and Laveranues Coles were able to post serviceable numbers despite having struggling QBs Chad Pennington and Kellen Clemens under center. Also, running back Thomas Jones was still able to crack 1,000 yards rushing despite teams stacking against the run. The defense gave up 22.2 points per game last year, but much of that could be blamed on the offense’s inability to move the ball.

Minnesota Vikings
Total: 8.5
Our O/U Pick: Over

Brett Favre and "Purple Jesus"? The Vikings would instantly become a Super Bowl contender. (AP Images)

With Favre under center, this team is an instant Super Bowl contender. Adrian "Purple Jesus" Peterson proved he was capable of 2,000 rushing yards in his rookie year, backup RB Chester Taylor could be a starter on a lot of teams, while Bobby Wade and Sidney Rice have the talent to crack 1,000 yards receiving in their second year in Minnesota if Favre was their QB. Then you have a D-line that allowed a league-best 74.1 rushing yards per game last year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Total: 8
Our O/U Pick: Push

QB Jeff Garcia was a perfect fit for Bucs coach Jon Gruden's offense because he didn't make many mistakes. The passes were quick and short mixed in with the occasional bomb to ageless speedster Joey Galloway. That's why we're skeptical Favre will immediately fit in. Even though he displayed the ability to control his free-throwing nature, Gruden's system is more about a QB's mental strength than physical. Although he's a vet, Favre isn't really a details guy when it comes to controlling an offense which could lead to clashes between coach and QB.

TOP PHOTO: Brett Favre is coming back, but for which team? (AP Images)